Russian diesel tanker sails toward New York, and U.S. delivery in November looks likely

Traders now see Russian diesel reaching a U.S. port by the end of November as likely, after the Kremlin said the first tanker under the Trump-Putin diesel arrangement had set sail.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday that the tanker had sailed. Shipping data reviewed by Reuters showed the 40,000-ton cargo aboard the Malta-flagged Agioi Fanendes headed for New York, with arrival expected November 7. That suggests the shipment is moving toward a U.S. port rather than merely being planned.

The odds were steady on Thursday, then climbed notably on Friday, with most of the gain coming around late morning. They had already leaned toward the shipment happening. Across the related questions, traders expect delivery around mid November. They see the likeliest window as after October 31 and by the end of November, and the range of expectations runs from early November to no delivery by December 31. A delivery by October 31 remains a long shot, while one by December 31 looks likely.

The outcome requires Russian-origin diesel to be physically delivered to a U.S. port or into U.S. territory for commercial or government use. The import must either be described by credible reporting as made under the Trump-Putin agreement or be authorized under General License 135. Diesel used as a ship's own fuel, held in bond for re-export or in transit to another country does not count.

President Donald Trump announced the arrangement with Vladimir Putin on October 9, for Russia to supply diesel to U.S. and global markets. That day the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General License 135, authorizing transactions tied to the sale, delivery, offloading and importation of Russian-origin diesel.

The next test is the voyage itself. If the Agioi Fanendes reaches a U.S. port with the reported cargo, that would meet the physical-delivery requirement. If it diverts, fails to arrive by November 30, or does not qualify under the agreement or the license, it would not. Further shipments were discussed, but their timing and destinations were not established in the reporting reviewed.