Trump's post leaves traders split on Supreme Court Justice Alito retiring by June

Bets on Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito announcing his retirement by next June jumped on Friday, leaving traders close to evenly divided but leaning toward an announcement. President Donald Trump reshared a two-week-old Politico article about Alito considering retirement and called him “a great man,” according to Trump’s Truth post archive. The post renewed attention to the possibility, but it was not a retirement announcement by Alito or an official representative.

Expectations had eased from early October, then climbed. Bets were lower on Oct. 6, after reports highlighted Alito’s comments that he planned to serve through the current Supreme Court term and would not retire during the congressional lame-duck session. They recovered as coverage on Oct. 8 and 9 emphasized that a later departure remained possible, and rose again on Oct. 10. After holding steady for several days, they jumped on Friday following Trump’s repost.

Retirement speculation has come in waves. Alito became ill at a Federalist Society dinner in March; the court said he was treated for dehydration and returned to work. In June, NPR mistakenly published a prepared story saying he was retiring, then retracted it. The court’s public information office said no retirement had been announced. In October interviews, Alito said he had considered retiring at the end of the previous term and would reconsider each term, while also saying he believed he could still contribute. A separate question about an announcement by year-end remains unlikely, even as expectations for a later announcement are closer to even.

The Supreme Court’s October term began on Oct. 5, and Alito told Bloomberg he intends to serve through it. The Nov. 3 midterm election will determine Senate control, a factor in the succession context. A qualifying outcome still requires Alito or an official representative to announce his retirement by next June; Trump’s post does not meet that condition.