Odds of Alito announcing retirement by next June recover after a sharp drop

Traders again see Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito announcing his retirement by June 2027 as a toss-up, after bets on that outcome recovered within hours of a sharp plunge. The question covers any announcement from Alito or an official representative by the end of the Court's current term, even if the retirement took effect later.

The round trip was fast. Late Wednesday, expectations collapsed from a toss-up to unlikely in a matter of minutes. Early Thursday, within roughly half an hour, they rebounded most of the way, taking back the entire fall. No reported news explains either swing. No credible report or official statement timed to the drop or the rebound has turned up. A Supreme Court order on Wednesday recorded Alito joining Justice Clarence Thomas in saying they would have granted the government's request in a case. That shows he is taking part in Court business but does not point to any change in his retirement plans.

The move follows a volatile stretch. Bets climbed in the days after Oct. 10, then surged on Friday after President Donald Trump reshared a Politico report about Alito weighing retirement and called him "a great man." The post renewed attention but was not an announcement by Alito or anyone speaking for him. Expectations then eased over the weekend and early this week before Wednesday's plunge and Thursday's recovery.

A separate question on whether Alito announces a retirement by the end of this year was unchanged and still looks unlikely.

Alito has given mixed but mostly firm signals. Retirement speculation grew after his March hospitalization, when he was treated for dehydration and returned to work. On June 30, NPR mistakenly published a prepared report saying he was retiring and then retracted it; neither Alito nor the Court had said any such thing, the Associated Press reported. In August, Alito said, "Obviously I'm here for another term." In an October interview, he said he had considered retiring but decided he could still contribute, and that he would revisit the question periodically.

On Oct. 6, Alito told Bloomberg News he intends to serve through the current term and would not retire during the lame-duck session after the midterm elections, even if Democrats win the Senate. That rules out one window but leaves open an announcement at the end of the term, which runs into June 2027.

The midterm elections on Nov. 3 may shape the political backdrop for any vacancy. No announcement is scheduled, and the picture could change if Alito makes a new public statement or an official announcement emerges.