Justice Alito calls retirement talk unpleasant while year-end announcement is unlikely

In an interview quoted by The Washington Post on Oct. 9, Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito called retirement speculation unpleasant, saying he was “bemused” by it and describing “the vultures circling” as unpleasant. He did not announce a retirement decision. Traders still consider an announcement by year-end unlikely, though not out of reach.

The latest comments followed a sharp shift in expectations earlier in the week. Bets had stayed at long-shot levels from Sept. 30 through Oct. 2, edged up over the weekend, and dipped on Monday. On Oct. 6, Bloomberg reported Alito intended to serve through the Supreme Court’s current term and would not retire during Congress’s lame-duck session. The following day, expectations jumped from a long shot to unlikely. The Oct. 9 remarks addressed the speculation but did not announce a decision or establish a new retirement timeline.

Retirement speculation had intensified as the November midterm elections approached, amid questions about whether a vacancy could let President Donald Trump name a successor before a possible change in Senate control. CBS reported on Oct. 2 that Alito had considered retiring at the end of the prior term but stayed because he believed he could still contribute. He also said he would revisit the question each term. Bloomberg’s report narrowed one possible window for a year-end announcement, but Alito could still announce a retirement with a later effective date.

A separate question about an announcement by June 2027 now looks close to even, suggesting traders see more possibility over the longer window than by year-end. The Nov. 3 midterm elections are the next political marker likely to renew attention to Senate control and a possible Supreme Court vacancy. Alito has said he intends to serve through the current term, which is expected to continue into June 2027. An announcement from Alito or an official representative would establish that he plans to retire; no such announcement has been reported.