Traders grow more doubtful Srdanović will become Serbia's PM by mid-2028

Traders have pulled back from the prospect of Ilija Srdanović becoming Serbia’s prime minister. The outcome still looks very unlikely, and the reason for the latest decline is not yet clear. No reported development has been tied to the move.

Bets were fairly steady near the start of October, then swung sharply on Oct. 5 and rose again the following day. After a brief pause, they climbed further through Oct. 8, when Srdanović’s chances reached their recent high. The latest retreat has erased much of that gain. Traders continue to favor President Aleksandar Vučić as the next prime minister.

Srdanović leads the Student List, a slate formed by Serbia’s student-led protest movement. The Republic Electoral Commission proclaimed the list in September for the early parliamentary election. Vučić resigned as president on Sept. 27 and said he would seek to return to power as prime minister through the vote. The election therefore pits the student-backed slate against Vučić’s bid to lead the governing list.

Earlier coverage reported allegations about voter-list data, a student protest and the commission’s ballot order, which put the Student List third. Those reports provide campaign context, but none has been established as the reason for the latest decline. Polling has sent mixed signals: one survey put the Student List ahead, while another showed Vučić’s list in front.

The Oct. 25 parliamentary election is the next major test. Its result will show whether the Student List can win enough seats to give Srdanović a path to the premiership, but the vote alone would not make him prime minister. He must be elected by the National Assembly, formally sworn in and form a new government. The Associated Press has reported that parliament would be expected to elect Vučić if his party wins a majority. Coalition negotiations and the Assembly’s choice will also shape the outcome.