Traders now expect North Korea's Kim to stay in power this year

Traders have pulled back sharply from bets that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will permanently leave power before 2027. After a spike on Monday, his departure this year is again a long shot. The reason for the decline is not clear. The rumors that drove Monday's jump do not explain why bets fell back, and no new development has been identified.

Monday's rise followed unverified online claims that Kim had suffered a brain hemorrhage, been taken to Beijing and possibly died. The claims began spreading on social media on Oct. 18. The International Business Times UK and Geo News amplified questions about his health the next day. Those reports plausibly explain Monday's jump, but neither the claims nor Kim's alleged condition has independent evidence or official confirmation.

Bets had sat at a very low level from Oct. 13 until Monday, when they climbed and swung widely through the day, peaking late in the evening. They held higher into early Tuesday, then eased through the morning and gave back most of the gain. The fall was large enough to move Kim's departure from unlikely back to a long shot.

Across the wider question of which leader will be the next out, traders see a toss-up on whether any listed leader leaves this year. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the next most likely to go, though traders still call that unlikely, and bets on him eased over the same stretch. Spain's Pedro Sánchez and France's Sébastien Lecornu are each long shots.

North Korean state media reported Kim at a Workers' Party anniversary performance on Oct. 10 and published photographs of his visit to a defense museum the next day, a visit Yonhap reported on Oct. 13. Those appearances give context but do not establish his condition after the rumors began. North Korea also reported weapons activity, including an AI-guided torpedo test on Oct. 17. On Monday, Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, threatened possible renewed propaganda broadcasts and additional weapons deployments along the South Korean border. None of these developments indicated that Kim had left office.

No leadership vote, scheduled departure or other decision bearing directly on Kim's tenure has been identified. Credible confirmation that he resigned, was removed or died could change expectations. Rumors of illness or a temporary transfer of power would not amount to a permanent departure.