Spain poll projects right-wing majority, while traders expect Sánchez to stay this year

At his first campaign rally on October 10, in Dos Hermanas, Seville, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez pledged to reinforce and maintain his government’s housing decrees, EL PAÍS reported. The pledge is a campaign statement, not a change in his status as prime minister. Traders still consider Sánchez leaving office by year-end unlikely, though the expectation eased slightly since the previous update. The reason for that small pullback is not clear.

Expectations of Sánchez’s departure had risen from a low level at the end of September, then climbed sharply on October 2 as parliament rejected two government housing decrees and reports said he was weighing an early election. They swung further on October 5, when Sánchez called a general election for November 29. The snap-election announcement raised the prospect of a change in government, but calling an election does not itself mean Sánchez has left office. The latest poll, published by EL PAÍS and Cadena SER, projects 198 seats for the conservative People’s Party and Vox combined, while putting the governing PSOE at 28.1% of estimated vote. It describes a difficult contest for Sánchez, not an election result.

The housing dispute and protests helped set the backdrop for the campaign. The government approved two replacement housing decrees on October 6, and parliament’s Permanent Deputation still needs to ratify them. Spain’s main unions have called a general strike over housing and wages for November 11, AFP reported. A proposed televised debate between Sánchez and opposition leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo is also part of the campaign calendar.

The November 29 election is the next major test, but even a loss would not by itself establish that Sánchez has left office by year-end. The question turns on whether he resigns, is dismissed, or otherwise loses the premiership or is prevented from performing its duties. Further polls, campaign events and the housing measures’ fate could change expectations; no scheduled event currently establishes that he will leave office before the election.