Spain's Sánchez urges voting rights, with bets split on listed leaders leaving this year

EL PAÍS reports that Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez urged the Supreme Court to let some people naturalized under the grandchildren’s law vote in the November 29 election. The appeal is a campaign statement, not an announcement that Sánchez is leaving office. Bets on no listed leader leaving office this year have climbed from an unlikely prospect to a toss-up since the last update. The reason for the latest jump is not yet clear, and the voting-rights appeal has not been established as its cause.

The broader expectation has swung through October. Bets on no listed leader leaving began the month below even, fell on October 2, then rose over the following days. They held fairly steady Friday and Saturday before jumping Sunday. The latest shift follows a period when traders increasingly considered Sánchez a possible departure, though that remains unlikely on his individual question. Netanyahu’s departure is also seen as unlikely, and traders still see no listed leader leaving as the likeliest single outcome across the field.

The question is whether any listed leader permanently leaves office before year-end. Sánchez called a snap election for November 29 after Congress rejected his government’s housing measures, bringing a possible change of government closer. But the election call itself did not end his tenure. An election result alone would not settle the matter either: what counts is a permanent departure, rather than a temporary transfer of power or continued caretaker service.

A 40dB poll reported by EL PAÍS on October 9 projected a PP-Vox parliamentary majority despite modest gains for Sánchez’s PSOE. Sánchez began campaigning in Dos Hermanas on October 10 and pledged to maintain his housing policy. The next major test is the election; negotiations or a formal departure could follow. The Supreme Court dispute over who can vote concerns the electorate, not whether Sánchez leaves office.