Iran says seven tankers were hit in Hormuz as the deadline for a U.S. deal arrives

Iran's state television said seven oil tankers were struck or damaged overnight Thursday by attacks or naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the Associated Press reported. The deadline for a U.S.-Iran agreement on Hormuz shipping arrives at 11:59 p.m. Eastern time on Friday, and an agreement still has not been announced. Bets that the deadline will pass without a deal have hardened to the point where traders treat that outcome as certain, though the question has not formally resolved.

The Atlantic also reported Thursday that President Donald Trump is weighing renewed strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterm elections. That reporting added to doubts about a near-term diplomatic agreement. AP noted that October has brought the most reported attacks on commercial ships since the opening weeks of the war. Together, the tanker attacks and the talk of strikes are the likeliest reasons expectations kept firming.

The odds of a failed deal have been high since coverage began on Oct. 11, and they climbed further through Oct. 14 and 15. They dipped sharply on Monday after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran's conditional seven-day proposal to reopen the strait remained on the table, Reuters reported. Washington had not accepted it, and the dip faded within a day. Expectations then rose each day from Tuesday through Friday, and edged up again in the early hours of Friday.

To count, an agreement had to commit Iran to permit, restore or increase shipping through the strait, and both governments had to clearly announce they accepted the same deal. Negotiations, proposals and one-sided support do not qualify. Iran's Sept. 25 proposal offered to reopen the strait within seven days, but only if the U.S. lifted its naval blockade, eased oil sanctions and observed a ceasefire that included Lebanon. The U.S. has not accepted those terms.

A related bet that combined a Hormuz agreement with Democrats winning the Senate also settled earlier Friday, with traders treating it as certain to fail. Because it depended on the diplomatic deal, a missed deadline is enough to sink it whatever happens in the Senate.

What comes next is simple. If no qualifying agreement is announced by 11:59 p.m. Eastern time on Friday, the question resolves on that basis. Any later Hormuz agreement would fall outside it. The Senate race will not be decided until the Nov. 3 elections, where forecasts and polling remain mixed and Democrats are competitive.