Traders certain the U.S. will hold off on announcing an end to its Iran blockade

Traders now treat it as certain that the United States will not officially announce an end to its blockade of Iran by the Monday night deadline. The question has not formally closed, since it runs until 11:59 p.m. Eastern on Nov. 2, but bets have settled on the blockade staying in place without a announced end.

No official has said the blockade is ending. Reuters reported Monday that Iranian negotiators had left talks in Doha and that a draft proposal for a U.S. deal was still being circulated, according to an official. The Associated Press described further talks as planned for the week. The continued lack of a definitive U.S. announcement is a plausible explanation for the slow slide in expectations, though the reporting does not establish why individual traders sold.

The odds were never high. They rose briefly on Friday, Oct. 30, when U.S. Ambassador Tom Barrack said a de-escalation deal was close. They faded on Saturday, fell further on Sunday and drifted lower again on Monday, ending as a long shot that became a certainty of No. Barrack's comment was not an announcement ending the blockade.

The question sets a strict bar. A U.S. official or authorized representative must clearly announce a present or definitive end or suspension of the blockade. A partial change, a conditional offer, a leak or a draft proposal does not count. The blockade does not have to actually end, and it can be reinstated later.

The diplomacy has been stuck for weeks. The Congressional Research Service reports that a June U.S.-Iran memorandum collapsed amid renewed fighting and expired in August. In September, Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks if the U.S. lifted the blockade and met other conditions, and President Trump rejected it. Secretary of State Marco Rubio later ordered Iran's U.N. delegation to leave New York.

Pressure on both sides continues. Axios reported that CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper briefed Trump on the blockade on Oct. 29, and that a Treasury report argued the blockade and sanctions were severely squeezing Iran's economy. AP reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pressed Trump to attack Iran after the midterms, while Rubio said Trump prefers diplomacy and has not decided on military action.

Longer-dated bets show hope has not vanished. An announcement by Nov. 15 or Nov. 30 is still seen as unlikely, one by the end of the year is a toss-up, and one by the end of March 2027 is likely. Traders' central expectation is late January 2027. Reuters said a follow-up meeting was possible and AP said more talks were planned this week, but neither gave a time.