After Tehran talks, traders see a U.S.-Iran truce lasting to about mid-November

CNN reported Monday that the Pentagon has prepared potential targets across Iran and that U.S. forces could begin major operations within 96 hours of a presidential order. The network cited two U.S. officials. President Donald Trump has not authorized another offensive, and the officials said they considered strikes after the November 3 midterm elections more likely than earlier action. No timetable was confirmed.

Traders still treat a U.S.-Iran ceasefire lasting through November 22 as a toss-up. For that outcome, the United States must not launch an air or missile strike that hits Iranian territory by then. Expectations have not moved since the last update, so the CNN report has not visibly shifted them.

Across the full set of bets, traders expect the truce to hold to about mid-November. A truce through October 28 or October 31 looks all but certain, and one through November 8 looks likely. Through November 15 is a toss-up, while November 30 and December 31 both look unlikely.

The odds have risen since the weekend. Bets on a longer truce jumped on October 19 after reports of Russian, Qatari and Pakistani mediation. They swung widely on October 21 and ended that day lower, then drifted down through Sunday. They climbed steadily on Monday. The likely reasons were Trump's Sunday remark that there would be no U.S. strike on Iran that day, according to the Associated Press, and a Monday visit to Tehran by Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials, which the Saudi Press Agency described as an effort to ease tensions. Those talks produced no ceasefire agreement and no commitment covering November 22.

The war began in late February, and a ceasefire followed in April. Trump has said repeatedly, including on October 8 and again through the White House on October 22, that the United States will not attack Iran before the midterms. Reporting on October 21 said he had halted a planned Israeli-backed renewed offensive until after the vote.

What comes next depends on diplomacy and on Washington's decision after November 3. Iran says messages are still passing to Washington through intermediaries, and it has rejected U.S. demands for "complete surrender." Talks in Tehran were set to continue, and Qatari and Pakistani mediation is ongoing. A U.S. order, new mediation or a qualifying strike on Iranian territory could move expectations again.