Odds of a U.S.-Iran truce holding through October recover to likely after a steep drop

Traders again see a U.S.-Iran truce lasting through October 31 as likely, after bets collapsed and then recovered within minutes early Friday. The rebound erased the drop, but expectations remain weaker than at the start of the story, when the truce looked all but certain to hold through the month.

The reason for the swing is not clear. No U.S. strike on Iran has been reported, and no news has been found that explains either the fall or the recovery. Axios reported Thursday that the top U.S. Middle East commander briefed President Donald Trump on the Iran blockade, and Sen. Chris Murphy described a briefing on a possible renewed U.S. campaign. Neither report establishes a cause for the move, and a military plan or warning is not a strike.

The odds had climbed through the past week, reaching all but certain by Wednesday. They held there through most of Thursday, then began to slip late in the day. They dropped to unlikely early Friday before jumping back to likely within minutes. Over the full story the truce through October 31 is down about twenty points, a clear loss but not a collapse.

Other deadlines show the same caution. A truce through October 28 still looks all but certain. One through November 8 has slipped from likely to a toss-up, and truces through the end of November or the end of December look unlikely.

For this question, the truce holds unless the United States launches an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly hits Iran's land or inland waters before 11:59 p.m. Iran time on October 31. Threats, intercepted missiles, strikes at sea and minor strikes do not count.

The United States and Israel began their war with Iran on February 28, and a June ceasefire proved short-lived. On October 8, Trump said the United States would not resume strikes before the November 3 midterms. The Associated Press reported this week that U.S. officials told regional allies to prepare for possible action after the election, though Trump had made no final decision.

Next, watch for any word from Trump on a decision. Mediators are trying to restart talks, and Trump said Wednesday that negotiations were moving through intermediaries but that he did not know whether they would succeed.