Traders see a U.S.-Iran deal reopening Hormuz as unlikely this month

Traders still see a qualifying U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as unlikely this month, though their conviction has eased. The shift followed a statement from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi that Tehran’s conditional proposal remained on the table and Iran was reviewing U.S. comments, Reuters reported. The proposal has not become an agreement: Iran’s conditions remain unmet, and the United States has not accepted it.

Expectations that no agreement would be announced had strengthened through Oct. 15, moving from likely to all but certain. They then dropped sharply on Monday, back to likely. The latest change followed Araqchi’s renewed signal that diplomacy remained possible. Earlier, on Oct. 14, a cargo ship sank after striking a mine; traders’ expectations rose through that period, though the reporting does not establish that the incident drove the move.

The two countries reached an interim agreement in June that linked a ceasefire to reopening the strait, but it collapsed within weeks amid renewed fighting and disputes over shipping. In September, Iran proposed reopening the waterway within seven days if Washington lifted its port blockade and oil sanctions and ended hostilities on regional fronts. The sides also disagreed over whether nuclear concessions had to be part of talks from the outset. A separate market combining a Hormuz agreement with Democrats winning the Senate has gained ground but remains a long shot.

The immediate question is whether Washington accepts Iran’s conditions or mediators produce terms both governments clearly accept. Iran says shipping could resume on the sixth day after U.S. acceptance, with talks restarting on the seventh. No decision or meeting date has been confirmed. Axios reported that President Donald Trump said the United States would not attack Iran before the midterms, but that does not establish acceptance of Iran’s proposal.