Qatar's prime minister and Witkoff look likeliest to join U.S.-Iran talks this year

Traders see Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, as one of the likeliest people to take part in a senior U.S.-Iran meeting before the end of the year, though they still regard his attendance as unlikely. Bets on his taking part rose sharply over the past day, one of the larger moves among the people being tracked for such talks.

The reason for the climb is not yet clear. No development or reporting has been identified that explains it, and this story will be updated if one emerges. Nothing in the available information shows that a meeting has been scheduled or that the sheikh has been invited.

The climb came in two steps. Bets fell back early in the week, reaching a low on Tuesday. They recovered on Wednesday, jumping in the evening, and kept rising into early Thursday before leveling off. Over the past two weeks they have swung repeatedly, with an brief spike on October 23 that did not last.

The sheikh is not alone. Bets on Steve Witkoff, the U.S. envoy, have risen to about a toss-up, the likeliest of anyone tracked. Jared Kushner is close behind, and both are seen as more likely than not to be absent. Bets on Vice President J.D. Vance have also climbed noticeably since the story began, though he remains unlikely. Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Pakistan's Ishaq Dar and the International Atomic Energy Agency's Rafael Grossi are all seen as unlikely. President Masoud Pezeshkian is unlikely and President Donald Trump a long shot.

To count, a person must be physically present and take an active part in a formal, in-person, senior-level round of U.S.-Iran peace talks. Indirect talks through mediators qualify, but staff-level talks, brief encounters and remote meetings do not. The meeting must also be publicly acknowledged or reported by credible media.

Earlier this month, Pakistan said it was ready to mediate talks. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian defended continued dialogue with Washington, and Axios reported that Witkoff, Kushner and Vance still viewed diplomacy as worth pursuing. Those signals suggested the channel stayed open, but they did not announce a meeting.