Qatar's prime minister is likeliest to join U.S.-Iran talks this year, but still unlikely

On the eve of the U.S. midterm elections, traders see no one as likely to take part in a senior U.S.-Iran negotiating round before the end of the year, and Qatar's prime minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, is the likeliest of the named figures. His chances still rate as unlikely.

Bets on Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner sit just behind him, also unlikely. Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Vice President JD Vance are close behind. Oman's foreign minister and the U.N. nuclear chief, Rafael Grossi, rate lower. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is a distant prospect, and President Trump is a long shot. None of those has changed since this story began.

The Qatari prime minister's odds have been volatile over the past two weeks. They slipped through the middle of October, then fell sharply on Oct. 26 and Oct. 27. They rebounded just as sharply on Oct. 28 and Oct. 29, when traders briefly made him a contender. Since then they have eased and recovered by turns, touching their recent high on Sunday before slipping back today. The reporting available does not establish what drove the individual swings.

The diplomatic backdrop has been busy. Qatar's prime minister said on June 22 that a U.S.-Iran memorandum had set a negotiating framework and that Qatar would keep mediating with Pakistan. On Oct. 28, Axios reported that Vance had written to Iran's security chief proposing renewed negotiations that address the nuclear issue. A later Axios report said Qatar delivered the letter. Qatari mediators then held more than 12 hours of talks in Tehran on Oct. 30, Axios reported. Today, two Iranian officials told the Associated Press that their delegation had left Qatar after several days of discussions, with messages still passing through the mediator.

These reports do not show that the prime minister personally took part in a qualifying U.S.-Iran round. Such an outcome would require his physical presence in a formal, senior-level negotiating process involving both governments. Indirect talks through mediators can count.

Looking ahead, Iran says its proposal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear talks within two days if Washington meets its conditions. The AP reported no sign that Washington had accepted them. The midterms are tomorrow, and no further negotiating round has been announced.