Odds the U.S. holds off striking Iran before the midterms recover from a sharp drop

Traders again consider it likely that the United States will avoid a direct strike on Iran before the Nov. 3 midterms, after a sharp drop on Monday was fully reversed within hours. Expectations ended the day close to where they started, and the latest leg higher completed the rebound.

The path was abrupt. Bets on U.S. restraint edged up from Friday through Sunday and rose again early Monday. Then they collapsed within minutes, falling from a likely outcome to roughly a toss-up. They climbed back through the rest of the day, first to likely and then higher, and finished Monday at about their pre-drop level. No reported news explained the plunge itself.

For the rebound, there is a possible explanation. Reuters and Anadolu Agency reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran on Monday. Lavrov said the visit aimed to prevent a return to large-scale war. Al Jazeera reported that Gulf Cooperation Council states had pressed Moscow to help halt Iranian attacks and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and that Iran said its policy was to focus on diplomacy. The talks are a plausible catalyst, but reporting has not directly tied them to the move.

Traders in related questions moved the same way. Bets that the ceasefire continues through Nov. 8 rose from unlikely to a toss-up, and bets on it lasting through Nov. 22 also gained, ending near even. Traders also strengthened their view that the ceasefire holds through Oct. 31, which they now see as likely.

The question covers only a direct U.S. air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike on Iran's land territory or internal waters. Threats, intercepted weapons, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval gunfire and other minor actions do not count. President Donald Trump said on Oct. 8 that the U.S. would not attack Iran before the midterms, but reports have also described preparations for possible renewed operations. On Sunday, Trump warned that the U.S. could "soon finish the job." The Tehran talks add a diplomatic signal but do not show that the risk of a strike has passed.

No scheduled U.S. or Iranian event bearing directly on a strike has been found. Reporting has linked Israel's Oct. 27 election to decisions about the timing of possible military action. Negotiations remain stalled, and Iran's seven-day ceasefire proposal is still on the table. A U.S. strike would end the ceasefire for this question, while further mediation by Russia or others could strengthen expectations of restraint.