Rubio’s rebuke leaves traders split on U.S. blockade ending this year

The prospect of a U.S. announcement ending the blockade of Iranian ships is now a toss-up for this year, after traders had favored it. The shift followed reports of strained diplomacy: Axios reported that Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered Iran’s U.N. delegation to leave New York after talks stalled. The Associated Press reported that Tehran had received a U.S. response to its latest offer, after President Donald Trump publicly rejected it. Those reports point to stalled negotiations, but do not establish that they caused the change in expectations.

On Thursday morning, expectations held near their earlier level before falling sharply that afternoon. The move reversed the year-end outlook from likely to nearly even. Shorter windows look less promising: a U.S. announcement in October is unlikely, and one by November also remains unlikely. A longer horizon into next year is different; traders still favor an announcement by March.

The latest move follows the reports already covered about Rubio’s order and Tehran receiving a U.S. response. Neither report described Washington announcing an end to the blockade. The question is whether the U.S. government or an authorized representative makes an official, unambiguous announcement of a general end or suspension. A limited change, a conditional statement, or an unofficial remark would not count; the blockade itself would not have to stop for such an announcement to qualify.

No scheduled diplomatic milestone is identified in the available reporting. Renewed talks or another official response could change expectations, while a definitive U.S. announcement would directly address the outcome. For now, traders see a year-end announcement as uncertain, even as they give diplomacy more time into next year.