Bets on U.S.-Iran truce through Nov. 8 recover to likely after a sharp drop

Traders still favor the U.S.-Iran ceasefire lasting through Nov. 8, after expectations plunged and then recovered within hours on Oct. 19. The outcome is that the United States carries out no air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly hits Iran's land or internal waters by that date. Threats, intercepted weapons, minor strikes and strikes at sea would not count.

The odds held near likely through Oct. 18 and the first half of Oct. 19. Around midday they fell within minutes, at the low reaching unlikely. They then climbed back through the afternoon, first to a toss-up and then to likely, taking back most of the loss. No reported news in the available material explains the plunge itself.

The rebound plausibly reflected diplomatic signals the same day. Russia's Foreign Ministry said Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was meeting Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran to discuss the Gulf crisis, according to the ministry and Anadolu Agency. The New Arab separately reported that Qatar- and Pakistan-backed mediation could produce an announcement this week. Those reports point to efforts to avert renewed fighting, not to an agreement, and none has been announced.

The New Arab has since reported that Pakistan's army chief, Asim Munir, arrived in Tehran on Oct. 20 with a proposal that it says has U.S. approval and earlier Iranian approval. Iran's foreign ministry said it would discuss peace talks with him.

Confidence fades for longer stretches. On Oct. 21, bets on the truce lasting through Nov. 15 slid further and remain a toss-up. The reason for that slide is not yet clear. Traders still see the truce holding through Oct. 31 as likely, but now see it lasting through Nov. 22, Nov. 30 and the end of December as unlikely. Across those dates, traders' central expectation for when the ceasefire ends is early November, earlier than the mid-November guess when this coverage began.

The truce rests on shaky ground. The United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. A Pakistan-mediated ceasefire took effect in early April and was followed by a June interim deal, but both sides have since traded strikes over alleged violations. President Trump said on Oct. 8 that the United States would not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, according to Al Jazeera and Axios. The Atlantic reported on Oct. 7 that the White House had asked the Pentagon for options for strikes on Iranian targets, with no decision made.

The pledge covers only part of the window, since the question runs to Nov. 8. A mediated arrangement or a sustained pause in strikes would push expectations toward the truce holding. Iranian attacks on shipping, which Trump has answered with strikes before, or a White House decision to use the options under review would push the other way.