Iranian ex-commander rejects talks while senior U.S.-Iran meeting looks unlikely this month

Iranian former Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Rezaei said “enough talking, enough negotiations,” the Associated Press reported Saturday. President Masoud Pezeshkian, by contrast, said Iran had made efforts to resolve the conflict. A senior-level U.S.-Iran meeting looks very unlikely this month; no date has been publicly scheduled. The AP report also says Trump and Iranian leaders deny that the U.S. election calendar is driving their approach to the war.

Expectations for a meeting had climbed briefly on Oct. 6, then fell sharply the next day. That decline followed President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran’s latest peace offer and reports from Axios and The Atlantic about U.S. officials discussing the war and preparations for possible strikes. Those reports offered a plausible reason for the drop, but described planning—not a decision to strike. Since then, the public updates have pointed to continued contact, without announcing a meeting.

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry has said it is mediating and that Washington and Tehran are exchanging messages. Pezeshkian has also said Iran revised proposals after new U.S. suggestions. Those contacts have not settled the central question: whether senior representatives from both countries will convene. The diplomatic effort remains fragile, with the sides divided over the terms and sequence of any agreement, including issues involving the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions and Iran’s nuclear program. For indirect talks to count, authorized intermediaries must bring both sides to the same venue or city on the same day; messages or proposal drafting alone are not enough.

Expectations are less bleak over a longer horizon: a senior meeting by November looks unlikely, while the question extending through December is closer to a toss-up. Across the event, traders’ midpoint expectation is that no meeting occurs by Dec. 31. Qatar’s mediation could still lead to talks if the sides agree to convene. Continued disagreement, renewed military action or a breakdown in mediation could weigh against that prospect. The Nov. 3 midterms are a backdrop, but the AP reports both sides reject the idea that the election calendar is shaping their decisions.