After Trump's 'no rush' on Iran strikes, a senior U.S.-Iran meeting this year is a toss-up

Anadolu, citing unnamed sources, reported that the United States approved a draft memorandum of understanding that Qatari mediators presented to Iran. No government has confirmed the report. Under the draft, the two sides would simultaneously announce an Iranian nuclear concession and the release of part of Iran's frozen assets. An interim deal would follow, paving the way for renewed negotiations.

Traders still see a senior U.S.-Iran meeting before the end of the year as a toss-up. The report did not move expectations on its own, and no date or venue for a meeting has been reported. A separate question on a senior meeting by the end of November is still seen as unlikely.

Expectations rose sharply on Tuesday, from unlikely to a toss-up. The likely reason, according to Axios and The Peninsula, was a pair of diplomatic signals. President Donald Trump told Axios on Sunday he was in no rush to resume major strikes on Iran and was letting diplomacy proceed. Axios also reported a Qatari draft meant to restart direct talks. On Tuesday, Qatar said both sides were reviewing mediators' proposals but cautioned there was no breakthrough. Traders also lifted bets on a U.S.-Iran agreement over the Strait of Hormuz by year-end to a toss-up from unlikely.

The path has been choppy. Expectations slid through the second half of October and bottomed out around Oct. 26. They then climbed for three days after Vice President JD Vance wrote to Iran's security chief seeking renewed talks. They eased over the weekend after Qatari talks ended without a breakthrough, then rose again before Tuesday's jump.

The obstacles are real. Iran insists talks be based on its seven-step September plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the U.S. naval blockade, and Iranian officials have called earlier Qatari drafts unacceptable. Washington wants nuclear issues included from the start. Trump has not ruled out further strikes, and the U.S. carried out limited strikes on Qeshm island in recent days.

What counts is narrow. A qualifying meeting needs a senior-level representative from each country. Indirect talks count only if authorized intermediaries are involved and both sides are in the same facility, venue or city on the same local calendar day. Remote talks and chance encounters do not.

Qatar's mediators went back to Tehran on Monday night and then returned to Doha as talks continued. Official confirmation of an announced interim deal, or a direct meeting of senior officials, would raise expectations. Renewed strikes or a collapse of the mediation would weigh against a meeting.