Trump reportedly halts Israeli attack, but a U.S.-Iran truce through Nov. 8 is a toss-up

President Donald Trump opposed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's proposed renewed offensive against Iran and stopped a planned multi-day operation before the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections, Axios reported Wednesday. The Associated Press reported that the White House said the United States would not attack Iran before the vote. Even so, traders now see a U.S.-Iran truce lasting through Nov. 8 as a toss-up, down from likely when this story began.

The reporting on its face points toward U.S. restraint, so it does not explain the slide, and the reason for it is not clear. Iran International, summarizing a Financial Times report, said renewed U.S.-Israeli strikes after the election remain possible. No U.S. strike on Iran has been reported.

The path has been jagged. On Monday, bets on the truce collapsed and rebounded within hours. They held steady on Tuesday, then fell sharply late Wednesday, bounced and slid again through the evening. Bets on a truce through Nov. 8 ended the period well below where they began.

The question is narrow. The truce counts as continuing unless the United States launches an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that hits Iranian land or internal waters by the end of Nov. 8 in Iran. Israeli operations, intercepted munitions, strikes at sea and unexecuted threats do not count.

Traders see a clear fade the further out the question runs. A truce lasting through Thursday looks all but certain, and one lasting through Saturday, Oct. 28 or the end of October looks likely. A truce lasting through mid-November is a toss-up. One lasting through the end of November or December looks unlikely. Across those end dates, traders' central expectation is a truce lasting until mid-November, with a range from one ending in late October to one lasting past the end of December.

The near-term picture has weakened too. Bets on a truce through Saturday slid from all but certain to likely over the period.

Diplomacy is unresolved. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Wednesday that indirect talks with Washington were continuing through mediators, CBS News reports. Israel votes on Oct. 27, and the U.S. midterms follow on Nov. 3. Reports say those votes are the main reasons Washington is expected to hold off, and that Netanyahu is still pressing for renewed strikes, the main route to a U.S. strike that would end the truce. A shift in Washington's stated position or a strike order would weaken expectations further, while continued restraint or a deal would support them.