No one looks likely to join U.S.-Iran talks this year, with Witkoff the likeliest

Traders see no one as likely to attend a formal, in-person U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting before the end of the year. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is among those seen as unlikely, after a sharp jump in bets on Oct. 14. The reason for that move is unclear, and no reported development points to a new senior-level round or to Rubio taking part.

Rubio's odds sat at a long shot through the first two weeks of October, with only small shifts, including a brief uptick around Oct. 5 and 6. They held there through Oct. 13. Late on Oct. 14, within minutes, they climbed from a long shot to unlikely, and they have stayed there since. No news report found by Mantis accounts for the move, and no meeting between Rubio and Iranian officials has been reported.

Among the officials traders are weighing, Steve Witkoff is the likeliest to attend, though still unlikely. Qatar's Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani comes next, followed by Rubio and Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Vice President J.D. Vance and Pakistan's Ishaq Dar are close behind. Oman's Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian are seen as less likely, and President Donald Trump is a long shot. Rubio's jump moved him up that field but did not make him a front-runner.

The backdrop is a war between the United States, Israel and Iran that began on Feb. 28, with Qatar brokering talks. Axios reported that Qatari-brokered talks in New York stalled around Oct. 1-2, when Rubio ordered Iran's U.N. delegation out of the United States. The delegation was led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. On Oct. 7, Rubio said Iran had missed multiple chances to reach a nuclear deal, CNBC reported.

The diplomatic channel has not closed. Axios reported on Oct. 14 that Qatar was waiting for Iran's response to a U.S. counterproposal, and a U.S. official said negotiations were not really dead.

No in-person senior meeting has been scheduled. The next thing to watch is Iran's answer to the U.S. counterproposal, followed by any public confirmation of a new senior-level round. Indirect talks through mediators would count if Rubio is present and takes part. Technical or staff-level meetings alone would not. Until a round is confirmed, the reason behind the Oct. 14 jump remains unexplained, and this story will be updated if one emerges.