Traders certain WTI crude oil will fall to $90 a barrel

Traders now treat a fall to $90 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil benchmark, as certain to happen. The question has not formally resolved, and the available quotes had not yet shown crude reaching that level.

The shift came in steps on Wednesday. Bets on a dip to $90 were little better than a toss-up early in the day. They climbed through the morning to likely as oil kept sliding, then jumped to certainty later in the day.

The likely reason is the slide in crude itself. Investing.com's quote showed WTI spot at $91.13 in the late morning, with a session low of $91.01. That put $90 within easy reach, though the quote did not show oil touching it.

The drop extends a decline that began earlier in the week. Reuters reported that oil fell to nearly four-week lows on Nov. 3, when WTI settled at $96.09. On Wednesday, EnergyNow reported the December WTI contract at $94.91. It cited renewed diplomatic hopes over Iran, recovering Middle East shipments and profit-taking among the pressures on prices. Hopes of progress in U.S.-Iran diplomacy have eased fears about supply.

Expectations for the rest of the month have moved down with prices. Traders now expect WTI's November low to be around $82, within a range of $72 to $89. That compares with about $88 when this story began. A fall to $85 is now likely, while a climb back to $105 looks unlikely.

The upside has faded as well. Traders expect the month's high to stay under $100, with a range running up to $119. A surge to $125 or more looks like a long shot.

What happens next depends on oil prices and on developments in U.S.-Iran diplomacy, which remain the main swing factors. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's next weekly petroleum report is scheduled for Nov. 12, a day later than usual because of Veterans Day.