Traders now see Iran handing over uranium as unlikely in a U.S. deal this year

Traders still see Iran handing over enriched uranium in a U.S. deal this year as unlikely, but expectations have shifted out of long-shot territory. The move followed a sharp jump on Monday, from a very low level to a higher—but still modest—one. Araghchi’s renewed proposal may help explain the rise, though no agreement or uranium transfer was announced.

Reuters reported that on Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran’s seven-day proposal remained on the table and Tehran was reviewing U.S. comments. The National, citing sources familiar with Tehran’s position, reported that the proposal included diluting Iran’s stockpile enriched to 60% and transferring it to a third party. Those terms could have prompted renewed interest in a deal involving the uranium, but they are not a confirmed commitment. Earlier, Reuters reported an Iranian official said Tehran would make no nuclear concessions under the proposal.

Expectations had held at a very low level from Oct. 5 through Sunday, including after Axios reported Friday that Washington and Qatari mediators were still waiting for Tehran to respond to a U.S. counterproposal. Monday’s jump therefore marks a change from that prolonged lull, rather than a continuation of a steady rise. Other possible uranium provisions in a deal remain viewed as unlikely or a long shot, including an enrichment cap and a long-term moratorium.

The talks build on a June memorandum calling for a mutually agreed way to address Iran’s enriched-uranium stockpile. On-site dilution under International Atomic Energy Agency supervision was described as a minimum approach, not a commitment to transfer the material. Iran’s proposal would also prioritize reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. has pressed for nuclear issues to be addressed from the outset.

No new round of talks or decision has been publicly scheduled. The next important steps are Tehran’s response to the U.S. counterproposal and whether both sides agree on how to handle the stockpile. What would qualify as surrender remains unclear: the available criteria do not establish whether third-party transfer or supervised dilution would count.