Rubio denies blocking Machado's return while traders split on Venezuela entry this year

On Oct. 7, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied that Washington had asked foreign governments to impede María Corina Machado’s return to Venezuela, Anadolu Agency reported. The denial rejects a reported U.S. role in obstructing her travel, but it did not announce a change in her plans. Traders now see her entering Venezuela by year-end as a toss-up, down from likely when this story was last updated. The latest slide has no reported cause.

Expectations had fallen from near even at the end of September to unlikely by Oct. 5. They then surged on Oct. 6 and rose further the next day, before giving back much of that ground. Machado had called her return urgent in an opinion article, and President Donald Trump said “everything will turn out fine” when asked about her plans. Her aide Henry Alviárez also said preparations were under way and suggested she could return within hours or days, but no date or route was announced. Those remarks provide context for the earlier rally, not an established explanation for the latest retreat.

The move leaves traders split on a year-end return, while a separate question about Machado entering by the end of October remains unlikely. Reuters reported that Machado and her team have faced repeated unsuccessful attempts to enter Venezuela. Earlier reports also said U.S. officials privately urged her to delay returning; Rubio’s denial addresses those reports, but does not confirm that a return is arranged. A possible meeting with interim President Delcy Rodríguez was being explored, El Pitazo reported, but no meeting was scheduled.

There is a conflict in the question’s deadlines: its title asks about entry by Dec. 31, 2026, while the written resolution terms specify Jan. 31, 2026—a date that had already passed. Those terms require a physical crossing onto Venezuelan land; entering Venezuelan airspace or waters would not count. The discrepancy needs clarification, and current reporting does not establish that Machado has entered the country. No confirmed arrival date, route or scheduled meeting was found. A verified land crossing, or a confirmed travel plan or official obstruction, could change expectations.