Traders' best guess is a new White House press secretary named by mid-December

Traders' central expectation is that President Donald Trump or his administration will announce a permanent White House press secretary around mid-December, though their range runs from early November to no announcement by the end of the year. That is later than the late-November estimate when this story began. The reason for the shift is not clear, and no reporting so far points to a new decision or development behind it.

For an announcement before the end of November, the question here, expectations have slipped but remain a toss-up, leaning slightly against. Bets nudged up on Monday, then began falling early Tuesday and dropped sharply through the morning before holding at the lower level. The decline since the story began is a little over ten points, large for this question but not enough to change where it stands.

The nearer and later deadlines moved the same way. An announcement by the end of October is now a long shot, down from unlikely. An announcement by the end of the year is still likely, though traders are less confident than before. No announcement by December 31 is the single likeliest individual outcome among the dates on offer, even as an announcement by then remains favored overall.

The post is vacant after Katie Zacharia left on October 16, five days into the job. Trump announced Zacharia, a Trump Media communications adviser, on October 9, after Karoline Leavitt left the role in August. Zacharia began work October 12 and gave her first briefing the next day. The White House releases page showed no replacement announcement as of October 19.

The Independent reported on October 19 that Scott Jennings, Margo Martin and Anna Kelly were among those being discussed as possible successors. White House communications director Steven Cheung said the administration was focused on the midterm elections. Those accounts describe an open search, not a scheduled announcement.

Only a permanent successor would count. Naming someone as acting or interim press secretary would not settle the question, and it does not matter when the new person is sworn in or begins work. An announcement could come through official administration channels or be confirmed by credible reporting.

No event tied to naming a replacement has been identified, so the timing rests on a decision by Trump and his team. Until a cause for Tuesday's drop emerges, traders appear to be weighing a search with no stated deadline against a post that has now been empty for days.