Yemen's Houthis report Sanaa strike while Aden entry stays a long shot this month

The Houthis said Sanaa’s airport had been struck again, according to the Associated Press, which reported the claim as an accusation rather than an independently verified account. The statement came a day after the Saudi-led coalition blamed the Houthis for a deadly attack on Riyadh airport. Traders still see Houthi forces entering Aden this month as a long shot. Expectations have fallen since the last update, moving from unlikely to a long shot; the reason for that latest slide is not clear.

Bets on an Aden entry rose sharply on October 5, briefly making it look more plausible, then retreated later that day. The earlier rise followed reports of Houthi advances near Taiz and along the Taiz-Aden road. AFP reported that the route had been cut, while Yemen’s government announced a counteroffensive. Those reports raised concern about pressure on Aden, but described fighting over access routes—not Houthi forces operating inside the city.

The front around Taiz remains contested. The Critical Threats Project at the Institute for the Study of War reported Houthi advances and government-aligned counterattacks, while noting that some claims of territorial control were not independently corroborated. Al Jazeera also reported that Yemen’s government warned Taiz hospitals were running low on medicines, supplies and fuel. Neither the fighting nor the humanitarian crisis establishes that Houthi forces have entered Aden.

The question is whether credible reporting confirms Houthi forces deliberately operating within the specified area of Aden by October 31. Further verified changes in control along the approaches could affect expectations. Missile attacks, threats or disruption alone would not establish entry, and no scheduled decision is expected to settle the question.