A week before Israel's vote, traders see Netanyahu unlikely to become prime minister

A week before Israel's parliamentary election, traders see Benjamin Netanyahu as an unlikely choice to become the country’s next prime minister. The expectation has held steady since the latest check-in, at just over one-in-four. Across the broader field, former prime ministerial contender Gadi Eizenkot is closer to a toss-up, while Netanyahu remains the runner-up in traders’ expectations.

Since the Oct. 13 update, bets on Netanyahu dipped, rebounded and then eased again. They fell from around three-in-ten to about one-in-four on Oct. 14, recovered to around three-in-ten the next day, and have since edged lower. The latest daily move was slight. The reason for the recent fluctuations is not clear.

The election will choose the 120 members of the Knesset, not the prime minister directly. A candidate must assemble support from at least 61 lawmakers to form a government. AP reported that an eight-poll average had Netanyahu’s bloc short of a majority, while opposition parties also lacked a clear route to govern. That coalition arithmetic remains the central uncertainty, with pollsters offering differing pictures of the race.

The latest reporting has added to the prospect of a difficult coalition bargain. AP reported on Oct. 16 that Netanyahu and his main rivals ruled out forming a coalition with Arab-led parties, though those parties could hold decisive seats. The development raises the possibility of gridlock or another election. On Oct. 18, President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu, but AP’s reporting did not establish that the endorsement changed the coalition outlook.

The vote is scheduled for Oct. 27. Once ballots are counted, the key question will be which candidate can win enough support to form a government. Party commitments and coalition negotiations could shift expectations; a caretaker government or another election would not itself make Netanyahu the next prime minister under this market’s outcome.