After Israeli jets fly to Iran's border, traders see the truce lasting into late November

Traders now see the Israel-Iran ceasefire lasting through November 30 as a toss-up, after a sharp drop on Wednesday from a likely outcome. Across the range of end dates, their best guess is that the truce holds into late November, about a month earlier than the late-December guess when this story began.

The drop likely followed an Axios report that dozens of Israeli fighter jets flew a sortie as far as Iran's border on October 19. Axios said officials viewed it as a show of force that risked miscalculation and renewed fighting. The report surfaced amid renewed reporting that Israel had been preparing strikes on Iran. The Financial Times reported that Israel had readied a multi-day campaign for October 10 but held it back after President Donald Trump objected.

The flight was not a strike on Iranian territory, and the ceasefire remains in effect. It ends only if Israel or Iran carries out an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly hits the other country's land or internal waters. Threats, preparations, interceptions, ground incursions and cyber operations do not count.

Bets held steady through most of Wednesday, slipped in the afternoon, wobbled in the evening and then fell again late in the day. Over the previous two weeks they stayed mostly in a likely range, with dips on October 15 and 16 and a rebound on October 17, when Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Tehran was open to talks if it received credible guarantees against new attacks.

The shorter deadlines have weakened too. A truce lasting through October 31 still looks likely, but one lasting through mid-November is now a toss-up, and one lasting through the end of December has gone from a toss-up to unlikely. Traders also pulled back on a U.S.-Iran truce lasting through early November, which slipped from likely to a toss-up.

Netanyahu on Wednesday directed Israeli security agencies to work to overthrow Iran's government. That is a separate development, not evidence the truce has ended. Trump said October 8 that the United States would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, though he later said he might still authorize strikes.

What comes next may hinge on the calendar. Israel holds elections on October 27, followed by the U.S. midterms, and reporting has tied talk of military timing to both dates. CBS reported Wednesday that indirect U.S.-Iran talks on a proposed ceasefire were continuing through mediators, though that did not establish an Israel-Iran agreement.