Bets on a NATO-Russia clash this month climb, though one still looks unlikely

Traders raised their expectations on Thursday that NATO and Russian forces will have a direct military clash this month, though they still see one as unlikely. The question covers strikes, gunfire or similar use of force between the two sides' militaries. Airspace violations, warning shots, cyberattacks and shooting down munitions aimed at a third country do not count.

The rise was sharp. Bets had sat at a long shot through the morning, then began climbing around midday and kept rising through the afternoon, a jump large enough to move the outcome from a long shot to unlikely.

The reason for the move is not yet clear. No development has been identified that explains it, and this story will be updated if one is found.

The recent path has been choppy. Bets slid to a low around Oct. 12, then spiked on Oct. 17, when Romania shot down two drones over its territorial waters, according to The Aviationist and Euronews/AP. They faded the next day. They jumped again briefly on Tuesday before settling back. Earlier coverage noted that the Romanian incident was a direct use of force but fell outside the question's qualifying period, so it would not settle the question. It cannot be tied to Thursday's rise.

Longer-range expectations have also moved up. A clash by the end of December also looks unlikely, and traders have grown somewhat more willing to see one. Their central expectation is still that no clash happens by the end of December. That leaves a clash this month as the less likely of the two, with only nine days left in October.

The backdrop is a war that shows few signs of ending. A Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement this month remains a long shot. Traders consider peace talks or some diplomatic meeting between the two countries more plausible, with talks most likely in November, though that has not translated into confidence about the fighting itself.

What happens next depends on whether any new incident involving NATO and Russian forces is reported. Until the cause of Thursday's move is known, the jump is a sign of heightened concern rather than of an expected confrontation.