Traders swing to doubting that Saudi forces struck Yemen on Oct. 8

Traders who had leaned toward Saudi Arabia's armed forces directly striking Yemen on October 8 abruptly reversed on October 14. Within minutes they went from thinking it likely to thinking it unlikely. A week later, the reason is still not clear, and no report found so far explains the move.

The question is narrow. It covers an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike conducted directly by Saudi forces that hit Yemen's land or internal waters on that day. Intercepted munitions, proxy or contractor action, artillery, naval gunfire and ground incursions do not count, and neither does a strike carried out by another coalition member.

Bets jumped on October 7 and stayed high through October 8. Saudi-led coalition spokesman Turki al-Maliki said on October 5 that 100 fighter jets were supporting Yemen's government counteroffensive. He said coalition forces destroyed a missile-launch platform in Sana'a the next day, and on October 8 announced the destruction of 82 military targets in four Yemeni governorates. Those statements did not specify which country's aircraft carried out the strikes.

Expectations eased on October 10 and rebounded the next day. They then swung widely on October 12 and 13, including a sharp dip at midday on October 13 and a recovery that evening. They collapsed early on October 14 and have not recovered.

The wider fighting has been intense. A Wikipedia summary says the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks on three Saudi airports from October 6 to 12, killing at least 20 people, and described them as retaliation for Saudi strikes on civilian infrastructure in Yemen. The Times of Israel reported that Saudi airstrikes hit an oil facility on the outskirts of Sana'a on October 13 and that the coalition confirmed it had targeted a site there. That is a different day from the one in question.

The drop applies only to October 8. Traders see Saudi military action against Yemen on October 29 as a toss-up, a little less certain than a week ago, and see action on October 30 as likely.

No scheduled event bears directly on the question. It would most likely be settled by official Saudi or coalition confirmation or denial of strikes that day, or by Yemeni or Houthi claims identifying the aircraft involved. A Saudi-Houthi ceasefire or mediation step, including Iranian offers to mediate, would bear on the wider conflict. Until then, the cause of the October 14 reversal remains unknown.