Bets that the U.S. stays out of Yemen strikes through November rebound after a dip

Traders again expect the United States to refrain from air or missile strikes on Yemen through November, after confidence in that outcome dropped sharply on Wednesday and then rebounded by about ten points within hours. Expectations ended the day in the same place they started, at likely, but the swing was large for a market that had been quiet.

The reason for the rebound is not clear. The earlier drop came after a fresh round of Houthi attacks on Saudi targets. On Oct. 21, the Houthis claimed a ballistic-missile strike on a Saudi-led coalition operations room in Aden, according to the Saba News Agency, and the Associated Press reported that the coalition intercepted five drones headed toward Saudi Arabia. Those attacks plausibly raised concern that Washington could be drawn in. That is background to the dip, not an explanation for the recovery, and no new U.S. decision to strike was reported.

Bets have been choppy for several days. From Oct. 16 through Oct. 18 they held steady at likely. They slipped on Oct. 19, recovered part of the loss on Oct. 20 and stayed flat through most of Oct. 21. They then fell hard late in the day before bouncing back. Bets that the U.S. holds off through October followed the same pattern, dipping from all but certain to likely and then returning to all but certain. The broader consensus still points to the calm with Washington lasting past the end of November.

The backdrop is a conflict that the U.S. has so far stayed outside. Oman announced a U.S.-Houthi ceasefire on May 6, 2025, after Washington ended its bombing campaign. That deal covers direct U.S.-Houthi hostilities, not the separate fighting among the Houthis, Saudi Arabia and Yemen's internationally recognized government, which escalated in September and October.

U.S. officials told ABC News in September that there were no current plans to attack the Houthis, and Axios reported on Oct. 2 that Washington would not join a planned Saudi offensive. After a deadly attack on Riyadh's airport on Oct. 10, President Trump said the U.S. might join Saudi strikes, but the reporting found no later strike or change of course.

Only direct U.S. air or surface-to-surface missile strikes that hit Yemen's land or internal waters would count. Intercepted munitions, naval gunfire, ground incursions and actions by Saudi Arabia or other countries would not.

Egypt's parliament is due to resume deliberations on Oct. 26 on authorizing military support for Saudi Arabia if requested. That is not a U.S. decision. Further Houthi attacks, a shift in Washington's stated position or an actual U.S. strike would be the developments to watch.