A week before Serbia's election, traders favor Vučić's list for most seats

With one week until Serbia’s parliamentary election, traders favor Aleksandar Vučić’s United Serbia list to win the most seats. The latest check-in leaves that expectation in place, with only a slight rise since this story began. A separate question on whether the Student List wins the most seats also leaves it an underdog.

Expectations moved unevenly in recent days. They dipped early in October, then swung sharply on October 9 before recovering. From October 10 through October 16, they held in a relatively narrow range. They rose on October 17 and climbed more on Sunday, reaching a higher point in the morning before easing back by midday. The Student List’s chances also fell sharply early Sunday. No reported development has been established as the reason for those moves.

The ballot pits Vučić’s United Serbia against the Student List, the electoral vehicle of a student movement that grew out of protests after the November 2024 Novi Sad station disaster. Vučić resigned as president in September to lead his party’s campaign and seek the prime minister’s office. Earlier coverage noted that Serbia’s election commission had adopted the ballot and included both leading lists.

Polling has pointed in different directions, and vote-intention surveys do not directly determine which list wins the most seats. A September survey by NSPM put the Student List ahead, while a Faktor Plus poll favored United Serbia. The Associated Press has described the race as tight. Vučić’s October 16 rally in Novi Sad also drew sharply different attendance estimates: Serbia’s Interior Ministry said about 110,000 people attended, while the Public Assemblies Archive estimated 16,500 visible at one moment. Those estimates are campaign context, not a confirmed explanation for the recent change in expectations.

The Student List has announced a closing rally at Belgrade’s Slavija Square on October 22. Voting is scheduled for October 25, with the Republic Electoral Commission’s count and final proclamations determining which list takes the most seats. Late polling, election-day reports and the official results could all change traders’ expectations.