Serbia's election commission adopts October ballot while traders favor Vučić's list

Serbia’s election commission adopted the consolidated candidate list on Thursday, a procedural milestone ahead of the October 25 parliamentary election. Both leading slates are included. The step has not been linked to the latest trading swings. Traders favor Aleksandar Vučić’s United Serbia list to win the most seats, while a separate market leaves the student list unlikely to do so.

Expectations for Vučić’s list were steady early in the week, then eased on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, they fell from likely territory to a near-even contest before recovering to likely territory. The latest reported shift was small, leaving the list favored. The student-list market moved sharply in the opposite direction, ending in unlikely territory. No poll, announcement or other specific event has been reported as the reason for Friday’s reversals.

Polling has offered conflicting snapshots. CRTA’s June survey of 2,324 adults put the student list ahead among decided voters, 44.9% to 35.7%. A Faktor Plus survey reported later in September instead put Vučić’s list ahead, 48.6% to 37.1%. The New Serbian Political Thought survey reported by MREast also showed the student list ahead, but its fieldwork preceded the students’ list submission and an opposition coalition’s withdrawal. Blic reported on October 6 that no newer poll had appeared publicly, leaving no clear current polling read.

The student movement submitted its 250-candidate list in September, and the commission proclaimed it the next day. Vučić resigned as president on September 27 to lead his party’s campaign for prime minister, then held a campaign-launch rally on October 3. Those events provide context, but reporting has not tied them to the latest moves. The commission adopted the consolidated candidate list on October 8; the vote is scheduled for October 25. New polling, campaign developments or election-administration decisions could shift expectations before then. Official results will determine which list wins the most seats.