Feijóo favored to be Spain's next prime minister two weeks before vote

Two weeks before Spain's general election on Nov. 29, traders see opposition leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo as the likely next prime minister, well ahead of the incumbent, Pedro Sánchez. A return for Sánchez is considered unlikely, and Vox leader Santiago Abascal is a long shot.

Feijóo's odds have swung over the past two weeks without changing the overall picture. They climbed steadily in the first days of November and peaked between Nov. 8 and Nov. 10, when traders treated his taking office as close to certain. They then slipped on Nov. 11 and fell further on Nov. 12 before recovering part of that ground over the following two days. On Sunday they sat about where they were at the start of the month.

Sánchez called the early election on Oct. 5 after his government's housing measures were defeated, and housing has stayed at the center of the campaign. On Nov. 12, the interim lower house ratified one government housing decree by 35-34 after a general strike and protests, while a second decree failed. The Popular Party says it would repeal the approved measures if it takes power.

A polling-based forecast updated Sunday gives Feijóo's Popular Party 130 seats to the Socialists' 115, and puts the Popular Party and Vox together above the 176-seat majority threshold. Polls differ, however. A Nov. 13 survey by SW Demoscopia projected the two parties at 173 seats, reaching 176 only with the PP-UPN alliance and the Canary Coalition. Traders also make the Popular Party the likely winner of the election itself.

Winning the most seats would not be enough for Feijóo. To become prime minister he must win a confidence vote in the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn in, and a caretaker leader does not count. Under Spain's constitution, a candidate needs an absolute majority on the first investiture ballot or a simple majority 48 hours later, so the outcome of any coalition talks will matter as much as the result. Traders expect Sánchez to leave office around mid-January.

A four-way campaign debate is scheduled for Nov. 23. According to the polling tracker, Feijóo, Abascal and Ada Colau have agreed to take part, while Sánchez had not confirmed. The campaign runs through Nov. 27, and the new chambers are due to convene on Dec. 23.