Sánchez expected to leave office in mid-January, not this year

Two weeks before Spain's Nov. 29 general election, traders expect Pedro Sánchez to lose power, but not immediately. Their central estimate for his departure as prime minister is mid January 2027, with a range running from before December 31 to not by January 31, 2027. The single likeliest window is the second half of January.

A departure before the end of this year is seen as unlikely, bordering on a long shot. Leaving by Jan. 15 is a toss-up, and leaving by the end of January is considered likely.

The odds of a year-end exit have drifted lower through November. They held steady in the first days of the month, dropped sharply on Nov. 4, recovered a little around Nov. 7 and 8, then slid again to their lowest point of the month on Nov. 12. They ticked down once more on Saturday and have not moved since. No reported event was established as the driver of those swings.

The gap between the election and the expected exit reflects how Spain changes governments. Sánchez called the early vote on Oct. 5 after parliament rejected his government's housing measures. Calling the election did not remove him from office, and Spain's constitution keeps the outgoing government in place in an acting capacity until a new one takes office. The new parliament convenes Dec. 23, leaving little time for a successor to be sworn in before the year ends.

Traders see a change of government as the probable result. Conservative leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo is the strong favorite to be next prime minister, and his PP is heavily favored to win the election, with Sánchez's PSOE a distant second in both questions.

Polls are less clear-cut. A Nov. 13 El País survey put the PP at 31.5% and the PSOE at 29.4%. The state CIS survey published Nov. 12 showed the reverse, with the PSOE ahead 33.3% to 25.5%. Most private polls reviewed by ARA gave the PP and Vox a combined parliamentary majority.

The next test comes on Nov. 19, when Sánchez and Feijóo are scheduled to debate, RTVE reports. After the vote, attention will turn to how quickly a successor could be appointed once parliament meets, and to whether a handover to acting status would count as leaving office. Removal is defined broadly, covering an announced resignation, dismissal or otherwise losing the position, so the timing of any transition matters as much as the election result itself.