Bets point to Likud winning about 22 seats in Israel's Oct. 27 election

Traders expect Likud to win about 22 seats in Israel's Oct. 27 election, with a central estimate of 21.8. The range they consider runs from fewer than 20 seats to 28.6. The 20-24 bracket is the likeliest single result and has climbed from unlikely to a toss-up since the story was last updated. The reason for the move is not yet clear, and no reporting found so far ties it to a specific development in the campaign.

The path has been choppy. In the first week of October, bets on the 20-24 range edged up from unlikely toward even. They stayed near a toss-up from about Oct. 12 through Oct. 18. On Monday they fell sharply and swung up and back several times, leaving the outcome unlikely at the day's low. On Tuesday they climbed steadily from the morning and jumped late in the evening, ending back at a toss-up.

The other seat ranges sketch the rest of the picture. Likud winning fewer than 20 seats is unlikely, though it has become a little more plausible since coverage began. A result of 25-29 seats is also unlikely, and 30-34 seats is a long shot.

Recent polls have disagreed with one another. A KAN/Kantar survey put Likud at 21 seats on Oct. 18, and an i24NEWS/Direct Polls survey put it at 25. Channel 13 and Maariv polls on Oct. 14 and 15 each had the party at 18. A Channel 12 poll in April had Likud at about 25 seats, according to Haaretz. The spread in the polling does not establish what drove Tuesday's move.

On Monday, Benny Gantz announced he was pulling out of the race after polls showed his Blue and White party below the electoral threshold, The Jewish Chronicle reported. Coverage has not linked his exit to expectations for Likud's seat count.

On the separate question of who leads the next government, traders see Gadi Eizenkot as the favorite to become prime minister after the vote. Benjamin Netanyahu is second.

The election is set for Oct. 27, and the Central Election Committee's official results will settle how many seats Likud wins. Until then, new polls and campaign news could keep shifting expectations.