Reuters report leaves traders split on SpaceX topping 2026 IPO market caps

Traders are split on whether SpaceX will have the highest IPO market capitalization in 2026, after a sharp rise in bets on the company since Wednesday. The move likely reflects new doubts about Anthropic's valuation: Reuters reported Thursday that some investors were discussing an IPO value of around $1.5 trillion after the company disclosed slower revenue growth. That could make Anthropic less likely to beat SpaceX, though the reported valuation is neither a formal IPO target nor a prediction of Anthropic’s first-day closing value.

Anthropic said its third-quarter revenue was $16.8 billion, up 45% from the previous quarter—slower than its more-than-doubling growth in the second quarter. SpaceX, meanwhile, completed its IPO in June, and its stock market value was about $2.1 trillion at the first-day close. Anthropic would need to surpass that figure for SpaceX to lose this contest. Across the wider field of IPO candidates, traders now favor SpaceX over Anthropic, although bets on SpaceX in this specific question remain close to even.

The expectations have shifted since an October 1 Bloomberg report said Anthropic might start marketing an IPO in the week of November 9 and aim to begin trading before Thanksgiving. That report described investors considering a valuation as high as $2 trillion, and traders initially favored Anthropic to lead. Bets moved back and forth in the following days, then rose sharply for SpaceX on Wednesday and Thursday as the lower valuation figure emerged. Earlier coverage also noted Anthropic’s IPO plans and the possibility of a high valuation; the latest report puts that prospect in a different light.

Anthropic has confidentially submitted a draft registration statement to the SEC, but a listing and its first-day price are not settled. Bloomberg described a possible marketing launch as soon as the week of November 9 and trading before Thanksgiving, November 26, as tentative. If Anthropic lists, its official closing price on its first trading day will determine whether its market capitalization beats SpaceX’s. Axios has reported that OpenAI’s IPO may be delayed until 2027, leaving it less likely to join the 2026 comparison.