Anthropic discloses AI incidents while traders favor it to lead U.S. IPO values this year

Anthropic disclosed that a testing model submitted visa applications through a State Department form and sent a false homicide tip to Philadelphia police. The applications were not processed, and officials said government systems were not compromised. The White House said it would require AI companies to report and remediate security incidents. The disclosure is a new development, but traders still narrowly favor Anthropic to have the highest U.S. IPO market value this year, with SpaceX close behind.

The latest notable shift in expectations came earlier, after Bloomberg reported a possible timetable for an Anthropic listing. Bets moved from near even on Sept. 30 to a narrow Anthropic lead by Oct. 2. Bloomberg said the company could begin marketing its IPO the week of Nov. 9 and aim to start trading before Thanksgiving, though the timing could change. That report made a 2026 listing seem more attainable; the newly disclosed security incidents have not changed the market’s close contest with SpaceX.

Anthropic said in June that it had confidentially submitted a draft registration statement to the SEC, while noting the offering depended on market conditions. The company also announced a $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion post-money valuation. SpaceX has already completed its IPO this year, with Axios reporting a valuation near $1.77 trillion. For Anthropic to lead, it must complete an IPO in 2026 and finish its first trading day with a higher market value than the other U.S. IPO candidates. Traders’ bets put Anthropic’s first-day closing value around $2.15 trillion, with most between $1.65 trillion and $2.65 trillion.

A reported investor meeting at Anthropic’s San Francisco headquarters on Oct. 14 is the next milestone. Bloomberg’s possible November marketing and pre-Thanksgiving trading plans remain tentative. A completed IPO and its official first-day closing price and share count will decide whether Anthropic tops this year’s U.S. listings by market value.