After Riyadh airport attack, traders favor Israel-Iran truce through Nov. 15

A missile attack on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport killed 12 people and injured more than 300, according to Saudi authorities cited by the Associated Press. The Saudi-led coalition blamed Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The attack is a serious regional escalation, but it does not itself establish that the Israel-Iran ceasefire has ended.

Traders still consider the ceasefire likely to hold through Nov. 15, with expectations near the stronger end of that range. They had already raised those expectations sharply on Oct. 10, after an Associated Press report said President Donald Trump and Iranian leaders each denied that the U.S. election calendar was driving their decisions about the war. That report was a plausible reason for the jump, but it offered no evidence of a new Israel-Iran agreement.

The move followed several days of retreat: expectations eased from near three-quarters on Oct. 7 to around seven in ten by Oct. 9, then climbed to roughly five in six on Oct. 10. Earlier reports said the Pentagon was preparing options for renewed U.S. strikes and that Israel’s military chief warned Iran could retaliate. Trump also shifted from saying the United States would not strike Iran before the midterms to saying he might still authorize action before the vote. The latest move reversed much of that pullback.

The question turns on a specific kind of violence: an Israeli or Iranian airstrike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly hits the other country’s land or internal waters. The Riyadh attack, which the coalition blamed on Houthi rebels, is not such an Israel-Iran strike. Nor would U.S. action, threats, interceptions or attacks elsewhere alone end the ceasefire under the question’s terms.

Expectations are stronger for the truce lasting through October than through the end of November; by year-end, traders are split. The U.S. midterms are Nov. 3, and additional U.S. forces could arrive in the region as early as late October, according to the AP. A qualifying direct strike could quickly change expectations; continued restraint could support them.